By M A Athul
The evolution of
technology has opened new fields of conflict. Outer space has become the new
area of contest, thanks to the advent of information era and the dependence on
satellites for communication. Rockets reaching outer space have been talked
about since WW2. The Nazis pioneered the technology with the V1 and V2 rockets.
Later, the Soviets came up with FOBS (Fractional Orbit Bombardment System). The
latest weapons such as DEW (Direct Energy Weapon) using X-ray to neutralize
ICBMS in mid-flight and ABL (Air Borne Laser) to direct energy against incoming
projectiles or aircrafts are used for neutralizing spying satellites.
The new technology will
have a profound effect on how war will be fought. Satellites are used for
remote sensing and intelligence gathering and is vital for C4I (Command,
Control, Computers, Communications and Intelligence) systems. Therefore protecting
satellites and neutralizing that of the enemy’s is critical for swift victory.
The anti-satellite weapons are much cheaper and thus easily deployable. The use
of micro satellites to neutralize satellites is very effective tool. The robotic
plane of USAF X37B and X37, the reusable spacecrafts are a few space
weaponries. The US DoD is investing much in anti-satellite missiles and space
vehicles capable of dispersing projectiles for ASAT purposes.
The new arms race in space
is between China and USA. Chinese space program is being carried out under the guise of China’s supposedly
non-military space program. Now China has risen to a major
force in space technology. The use of ASAT in shooting down its own satellite
in Jan 2007 is a fitting example. For attaining CNP (Comprehensive National
Power), being a dominant power in space technology is seen as an important step.
In the near future China foresees a clash with the US. To have an upper hand, China
has prioritized nuclear, space, shipbuilding electronics and other defence-related
industries. The most striking feature of Chinese space industry is that it is
directly related with missile development. It’s not exclusively a civilian enterprise.
The 1st Gulf War,
Kosovo and Afghanistan wars have taught that in a conventional war the
technologically-superior nation always wins due to superior intelligence-gathering
ability. In the 21st Century, the space-based support systems could
well be the difference between victory and failure. The Chinese has developed
the Long March rocket systems to be used in 2014 which can outperform Arianne 5.
China has noticed the overdependence of USA on satellites for smooth running of
its war machine, and considers it the Achilles heel of the US. And they have
come up with ASAT capabilities to obstruct the satellite communication capability. Chinese are using OST for monitoring
activities in West Pacific, South China Sea and Indian Ocean where its
strategic interests lie. They see space program as an anti-containment strategy.
Since China is a rising power, the West probably
wants to contain China’s rise. Chinese
see the way out of this trap by equipping themselves with better technological ability,
especially in space. During 60th anniversary of PLAAF, its former
commander Xu Qiuling stated that it will develop force projection ability to
outer space too and that only power can protect peace. This statement itself
shows the coming era of weaponisation of outer space.
Chinese space technology
is a direct threat to India, increasing our vulnerability in both land and sea.
For instance as the ballistic missile program matures for China, the threat to
our land and naval assets will increase over time. China would be able to hit
targets deep inside Indian Territory.
As the technology will tilt the balance of power in favor of China, the geopolitical
climate will become unfavorable to India, and China will start dictating its terms.
Hence, India has started to recalibrate its space program and focus on technological
developments to counter the Chinese superiority. Agni 5 can be seen in this
light as a counter-weight to Chinese weaponry.
With a range of 5000 km Agni-5 is a China centric missile, enhancing
India’s ability to hit targets deep inside China. And with V K Saraswat saying
that the Agni programme
would continue and the program won’t be caped, one can assume that India is at
least for the time being is moving in the right direction .
(The article is the Part-1
impressions of the book ‘Space Security:
Need for Global Convergence,’ published by Pentagon Press. Two more parts
would appear later. The writer is a first year PG student of Defence and
Strategic Studies with Madras University currently on a 2-months’ internship
with Tarmak007. His write-ups need not be news-breaks and in-depth in nature; hence should be seen as an ab initio effort by a budding defence journalist. The views expressed by Athul need not be that of Tarmak007.)